i haven’t written something in english for so many words~~~~

domestic violence

Bystander Survey 2006 New Poll Reveals Two In Three Americans
Say It Is Hard To Recognize Domestic Violence Despite Its Prevalence, The Patterns Of Domestic Violence
Are Not Understood By Many Bystanders

www.studa.net/2005/10-22/20051022821.html

http://www.rightsinternational.org/

联合国法院的官方网站为http://www.icj-cij.org/

在联合国官方网站（URL：http://www.un.org/ ）

 联合国文献中心（URL：http://www.un.org/document/）

联合国新闻中心（URL：http://www.un.org/News/）

欧洲理事会官方网站（URL：http://www.coe.int/portalT.asp）

非洲统一组织的官方网站（URL：http://www.africa-union.org）

阿拉伯国家联盟的官方网站（URL：http://www.arableagueonline.org/arableague/index_en.jsp）

联合国人权事务高级专员办事处（OHCHR）网站（URL：http://www.unhchr.ch）

联合国达格·哈马舍尔德图书馆（URL：http://www.un.org/Depts/dhl/）

美洲间国家组织的官方网站（URL：http://www.oas.org/）

人道主义法(Humanitarian Law)
    人道主义法是否属于国际人权法，理论界尚有争论。通常又称之为”战争法”，包括禁止使用的作战武器和作战方法、对武装冲突受难者的人道主义保护、中立制度以及惩戒战争犯罪等内容。分为两大类：一类是适用于国际性武装冲突，如1949年《日内瓦四公约》、1977年《日内瓦公约第一附加议定书》等所有限制作战方法和武器的使用的条约；一类是适用于非国际性武装冲突，如1977年《日内瓦公约地二附加任意议定书》、1954年保护文化财产的《海牙公约》第4条等。其主要机构有联合国难民事务高级专员、国际迁徙组织、人道主义事务协调办事处、国际红十字、联合国粮食及农业组织、世界卫生组织、联合国儿童基金会等[10] 。
    从联合国的主页（URL：http://www.un.org/）上的Humanitarian affairs栏目进入ReliefWeb网页（URL：http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf）后，在resources中可查到这些人道主义机构的具体名单、国际人道主义法的研究中心以及非政府组织（NGO）情况等信息（URL：http://www.reliefweb.int/w/contactDir.nsf/contactDirHome?OpenForm）。这些机构发布的报告、文件等内容可在人道主义图书馆（URL：http://www.reliefweb.int/w/lib.nsf/LibHome?OpenForm&Count=25 ）中找到并可进行搜索（要注册）。国际迁徙组织和国际红十字是最重要的人道主义救援组织。国际红十字（ICRC）的官方网站（URL：http://www.cicr.org/）内容非常丰富，其IHC数据库（URL：http://www.cicr.org/web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/iwpList2/Humanitarian_law:IHL_in_brief）简要介绍了人道主义法的历史发展、与人权法的关系、主要的人道主义文件（公约及议定书全文）、ICRC出版物、国际惯例法以及ICRC的主要活动、热点问题、新闻等。

The first day, I stayed in Chinatown where I settled. Maxwell st is one of the most famous food court st and it is definitely where I had my first breakfast in Singapore. The price is reasonable as well. Although it is not a lux life I felt comfortableJ

Then I went to little India to wander aroundJ U will feel a different kind of culture there which makes yourself really feel u r totally in India.  I had my first sugar can juice in my life there. Ummm~~~~ and it’s not badJ

The second day which is the most excellent day during my tour, I went to an island called Sentosa. It is a paradise for couples to relax and enjoy.  It is always a good way to buy the package tickets I believe. And what I did was to buy a package ticket of merlion tower which tells us about the history of Singapore and its symbol—the merlion; sky tower which u will see the whole view of Singapore and I did take a lot of good photos in the top of the tower; the 4D movies which makes u feel relax during a long walk in the island and enjoy the civilization; the image  of Singapore which shares the culture and experience of Singapore with all of us together; sky ride which is a little bit like adventure in the island. And the total price for the above is 35.5 Singapore dollars which is sound to meJ and I spent the whole day in the island and didn’t back to my hotel until 7pm, crazy dayJ

The last day I decided to do some shopping which is the nature of every girlJ Not only the style is new but also the brands with great reputation r gathered. That is to say, u don’t need to walk for a long time from one squad to another there r shops everywhereJ and there is also 5%-6% tax refund when u left Singapore which makes ur shopping much more cheaper even than Hong KongJ

But my flight back to Sydney is really a torture which took me 11hours and a half!!! That’s terrible. I’m really  tried now and don’t wanna write anymore. Hehe .

上个月的经济数据继续确定了全球经济周期还是健康的。过去的三个季度中全球经济最弱的一环是美国，这是因为美国楼市疲弱，工业生产和商业投资都开始放缓。越来越清晰的趋势是，虽然美国楼市仍然疲弱，但工业生产和商业投资都有改善。一个正面的因素是2006年第四季度的多余工业存货已经被消化。美国工业和服务业调查都显示商业信心开始增强。由新兴市场和欧洲带领的全球经济增长明显地对美国经济有帮助。最好的证据是第一季度美国企业盈利都比预期好，而这主要是由海外盈利增长带动的。很有可能美国经济增长的疲弱会在上半年反映出来，但在2007年下半年经济表现将会改善。美国楼市会持续疲弱，预计中期美国经济不会恢复到3.5% 的增长，但很可能已避免了衰退。在美国以外，经济状况明显良好。中国的增长超出11%，印度超出8%，而新兴经济整体也会增长超过5%。欧洲持续强劲。日本表现暗淡主要是因为信心还是疲弱，但日本再次进入经济衰退的机会不大。

Inflation data has eased over the past quarter, as slower growth in the US has taken the edge off global prices. Whilst the core rate of inflation has come down from last year’s levels, inflation does remain a concern for policy makers. We expect that gradual policy tightening will continue in Europe where interest rates were raised to 4% in June, as well as across emerging economies, with China in particular likely to see higher rates over the balance of the year. In Japan, the Bank of Japan is also signaling a willingness to raise rates, despite the economy failing to register much momentum. In the US we expect that Fed Funds will be on hold for a prolonged period, but ultimately with a recovery in growth rates will need to go up, probably in late 2007 or in 2008.

过去的一季的数据显示，因美国增长减慢，全球通货膨胀压力也减弱。虽然核心通货膨胀不及去年的水平，但通货膨胀仍是政策制订者关心的问题。我们预期欧洲会继续紧缩政策，欧洲刚刚在六月把息率提高到4%，而新兴市场国家，尤其是中国的息率会在今年继续走高。虽然日本经济增长缺乏动力，但日本央行也有意把利息提高。我们预期美联储基金利率会长时间维持不变，但在美国经济反弹的压力下，息率可能在2007年尾或2008年上升。

Overall we continue to view the global economic cycle as healthy. Global growth is strong, inflation pressure is muted and interest rates whilst on an increase around the world are not set at restrictive levels.

整体来说，我们认为全球经济体系健康。全球增长强劲，通胀压力减小，虽然全球息率有上升的趋势但没有处在限制经济增长的水平。

Equity markets have enjoyed a strong period since the correction in early March. A combination of solid global growth, good corporate earnings and record private equity flows has lifted all major markets. In the US, in May alone private equity deals were around US$100 billion. As private equity funds are sitting on significant un-invested assets we expect that flows will continue to remain strong. Market valuations remain reasonable, albeit the run up in equity prices and the rise in bond yields have reduced the level of equity attractiveness. Corporate earnings growth remains robust. We expect the best opportunities within equities to continue to be provided by Asia and Europe, due to strong growth and relatively more attractive valuations. Equities as an asset class whilst due to have a small period of consolidation following the rise of the past 3 months, remains the favored asset class for the medium term.

从三月初的市场修正以后，股票市场一直表现强劲。健康的全球增长，良好的企业盈利和历史性的私募股权基金流入都对所有主要市场起到推动作用。在美国，仅5月份私募股权基金交易就接近1000亿美元。由于私募股权基金仍握有数量可观的未投资资产，我们预计资金流入会持续强劲。估值仍然理想，但股票价格上升和债券回报率上升都降低了股票的吸引力。企业盈利持续理想。因较强的增长和相对有吸引力的市盈率，我们预期最好的股票投资机会来自亚洲和欧洲。股票市场过去三个月的升势后有一轮短期调整，我们认为中期内还是看好股市的。

Stronger economic data in the US and Europe, has led to a significant sell off in global bonds. US bond yields have risen by half a percent over the past 6 weeks, and are approaching the highest levels seen in the past 3 years of 5.25% on the 10 year bond. The US bond market has given up hope of a Fed rate cut and is beginning to discount the possibility of a rate hike later in the year. Whilst a rate hike late in 2007 or in 2008 is a possibility, it seems too early to put a high probability on the event. For the bond market to sell off significantly further, the rate hike needs to become a more probable event. Either the US economy has to bounce back at a faster rate or inflation has to rise. At this stage we don’t put a high chance on either event, and as such believe that the bond market sell off is largely done, for now. Relative to cash though bonds remain quite mixed as they offer a similar level of running yield, yet face the risk of potentially further sell off later in the year.

美国和欧洲的强劲经济数据导致全球债券被大量出售。美国债券的收益率在过去的六周增加了半个百分点，并且十年期国债收益率正在接近过去三年的最高点5.25%。美国债券市场已经放弃了对美联储减息的预期，现在开始反映对今年晚些时候加息的预期。虽然在2007和2008年加息的机会还存在，但现在就给予过高的期望还为时尚早。如果要债券市场有持续的沽货现象，还需更大的加息可能性，要么美国经济快速反弹，要么通胀增长速度加快。在现阶段，我们觉得这两个可能性不大，因此现在来讲债券市场沽货现象已差不多结束了。和现金相比，债券的前景很不确定，这是因为债券回报和现金差不多，但在未来仍有继续被沽售的风险。

Currency markets continue to range trade. We do not see a major catalyst to break the ranges in the near term. Fundamentally, Asian currencies remain attractive and the medium trend of appreciation across Asian currencies remains in place. The area of weakness in Asia has been the Yen, due to low level of interest rates in Japan. For the Yen to recover, the economy will need to pick up speed. Whilst Japan, has seen clear structural improvement in terms of end of deflation, rising asset prices and healthier banking sector, the economy lacks momentum. We do expect that the Japanese economy will show more vigor over time as domestic confidence builds and discretionary savings are reduced. The timing though remains uncertain.

货币市场继续震荡。我们觉得短期内不会有什么因素改变货币震荡的区间。基本因素上，亚洲货币仍有吸引力，在中期仍有升值空间。亚洲货币最弱的是日本，主要是因为低利率的影响。如果要日元走强，日本经济需要提高增长速度。虽然日本经济已有明显的结构型改进，通缩结束、资产价格上涨和银行体系趋于健康，但经济增长还欠动力。我们预期随着国内信心增强、可支配储蓄减少，日本经济增长会加快，但增长的时机还不确定。

股票策略

美国

回顾

The S&P 500 Index rose 3.3% in May. With large capitalized stocks remaining in favor during the month, it was the Dow Jones Industrial Average that continued to set the pace and the S&P 500 index also moved higher and broke through the 1500 level for the first time in six years. Economic data was mixed during the month, with good manufacturing and service sector data countered by disappointing retail sales, although consumer and producer price data showed inflation softening modestly, which helped to allay concerns about potential interest rate increases. Much like their international peers, US equities benefited from significant levels of deal activity.

5月份标准普尔500指数上升了3.3%。仍然是大盘股被追捧，道琼斯指数带领整个市场而标准普尔500指数六年内第一次打破了1500点的水平。虽然消费和生产价格数据显示通货膨胀压力减小，从而缓解对加息的担心，但当月经济数据仍然混乱，生产和服务业的数据造好但零售数据疲弱。像其他国际股市一样，美国股市也受益于可观的成交量。

展望

GDP growth expectations for 2007 continue to be revised marginally down. With the exception of housing market data, economic indicators released over the month point to some improvements on the growth outlook: for example, the ISM number, released in May, came out much stronger than expected. Similarly, the Philly Fed, another business confidence indicator, showed solid improvements in the new order component. Housing market related data continued to disappoint and remains a risk to the growth outlook. The outlook for the US market continues to be less positive than other markets’, particularly in Europe, due to mixed signals on the macro front and more demanding valuations. Improvements in the earnings revisions’ pattern by analysts are encouraging, but do not fundamentally change the outlook for the market relative to its peers.

美国2007 年GDP增长预测被继续调低。除了楼市数据以外，这个月的经济指标都显示经济增长有改进：例如，5月公布的供应管理学会（ISM）数据比预期强很多。同时费城联储指标，另一个商业信心指标显示，新订单组成有实质性改进。楼市数据还是令人失望，这对经济增长前景是一个威胁。由于宏观上的混杂信号和更高的估值，所以跟其他市场，尤其是欧洲相比，美国市场的前景仍然被看低一线。分析员修正盈利预期让人鼓舞，但没有从本质上改变对市场前景的判断。

欧洲（英国除外）

回顾

Over the month, the FTSE Europe ex-UK Index was 2.4% higher. In addition to the now customary merger and acquisition news, upbeat earnings and robust economic data also helped to push European bourses to multi-year highs. Data released during the month showed that the Eurozone economy grew at 0.6% in the first quarter, above the forecasts for a 0.5% rise, underlining the positive trend currently being experienced. Merger and acquisition news was largely responsible for the month’s gains as European stocks both made and received takeover offers.

5月份金融时报欧洲（英国除外）指数上涨了2.4%。受到购并活动，盈利超预期以及强劲经济数据的推动，欧洲多个证券市场都达到新高。这个月公布的数据显示欧元区经济第一季增长了0.6%，比预测的0.5%高，进一步显示出向上的趋势。股票市场的上涨主要是因为购并活动推动，欧洲上市公司中既有收购方，也有被收购的。

展望

Consumer and business confidence indicators continue their strong upward trend: for example, the business confidence indicator has shown better readings since May 2005. Given the strong data, it is not surprising that growth forecasts keep being revised upwards. Given the relatively benign inflation picture, we keep our year-end target for Euro-zone rates at 4.25%, but acknowledge that the risks are on the upside if growth continues to pick up momentum. Good growth and attractive relative valuations continue to create a more favorable outlook for European markets than for the other major markets. The pattern in earnings revisions is an additional element of support, especially for the Euro-zone markets.

商业和消费者信心保持着强劲的升势，例如商业信心指数自2005年5月以来一直走高。根据这些强劲数据，增长预测持续被提高，这是一点都不出奇的。欧元区的通货膨胀压力不大，所以我们预测年尾利率维持在4.25%不变，但是如果经济增长速度持续加速，利率可能会被提高。高增长率和有吸引力的估值使得欧洲股市前景比其他主要市场都好。盈利向上修正的趋向对市场，尤其是欧元区股市是进一步的支持。

英国

回顾

Equity markets in the UK reached fresh six and a half year highs during May, helped by further signs of merger and acquisition activity and continued strong corporate earnings. Mining stocks were active during the month and indicated the potential for consolidation in the sector. Oil stocks were also higher during the month, with merger and acquisition speculation again a key catalyst. Merger and acquisition activity was also to the fore in other market sectors. Whilst takeover news continued to dominate financial headlines, corporate earnings maintained a positive trend and added further support to investor sentiment. This background helped UK equities to shrug off both the interest rate rise to 5.5% and the prospect of further rises to come. The FTSE 100 Index closed 2.7% higher during the month.

5月份英国股市达到六年半的最高位，由购并消息和理想盈利数据所主导。采矿股在这月份活跃，显示该行业整合的潜力。受到购并消息刺激石油股当月也上升。购并消息也是其他板块的主要动力。在购并消息吸引眼球的同时，盈利持续造好也继续支持投资者信心。这些因素帮助英国股市打消了利率调高至5.5%以及还会进一步加息的双重压力。5月，金融时报100指数上涨了2.7%。

展望

First quarter earnings have been a key element in maintaining equity market confidence and in addition to the continuing M&A news these two factors have outweighed largely the path of UK interest rates creeping higher and the sustained recent strength in the oil price. However, UK interest rates look likely to increase. UK corporate performance has so far been able to absorb the steady increases in interest rates and the Bank of England have forecast above trend growth for the UK economy in the first quarter. Nevertheless, investors will be keen to see signs that UK rates could soon be nearing their peak, a factor that could be important in sustaining the increasingly mature bull market for UK equity stocks.

第一季的盈利是支持市场信心的关键因素，加上持续的购并消息刺激，这两个因素胜过了英国加息和近期持续上涨的油价带来的影响。不过，英国在未来加息的机会很高。英国企业的强劲表现到目前为止能吸收温定加息带来的影响，而英国央行预测第一季的增长会加速。然而，英国投资者会渴望看到英国息率见顶的迹象，这对保持英国股市的牛市很重要。

日本

回顾

Japanese equities were higher during the month, with the Topix Index up 3.2%. Economic news remained inconclusive, with consumer price data weak and economic growth below expectations. In the first quarter of 2007, the Japanese economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.4% against forecasts of 2.7% and against this background the Bank of Japan elected to hold interest rates at their current level of 0.5%. With rates held, the yen weakened and hit a record low against the euro, and with the currency weak it was Japan’s large exporters that were among the better performers during the month.

5月份东证综合股价指数(TOPIX)上升了3.2%。经济数据没有起到决定性作用，消费者价格数据疲弱，经济增长达不到预期。2007年第一季，日本经济年化增长率是2.4%，比预期的2.7%低，而日本央行决定把息率维持在0.5%。受到利率不变影响，日元疲弱，对欧元达到新低。受到疲弱日元刺激，日本大型出口股表现出色。

展望

Data on business activity continues to be weak and the weak growth outlook is not particularly supportive for equity markets. Industrial production growth remains positive but it is weaker than the previous month reading. Similarly, private machinery orders are down nearly 20% from a year ago. There are no significant developments on the inflation front: CPI remains around the zero mark. With no tangible signs of a return to a more normal pricing environment, we expect the BoJ to increase rates only at a gradual pace and keep our 12 months rate target in the 0.75%-1% region. Despite the concerns on the macro-economic front, valuations remain on the high side relative to recent history and other developed market peers. The unsupportive pattern in earnings revisions by the analyst is another element weighting negatively on the outlook for the market.

商业数据持续疲软，而疲弱的经济增长前景对股市不是一个好消息。工业生产增长维持良好，但比上一个月弱。同样，私人设备订单跟去年比下降差不多20%。在通胀方面没有什么特别的进展，CPI 维持在0附近。在没有明显迹象显示将重新回到更正常的价格环境的情况下，我们预期日本央行会逐渐加息，而我们的一年期目标息率会在0.75%-1%的区间。虽然对经济前景有疑虑，但跟其他发达国家的股市相比，以及跟近期历史水平相比，估值还是偏高。还有另一个不利因素是很多分析员都把盈利预期调低，这对市场前景也是一个负面因素。

亚洲（日本除外）

回顾

Chinese stocks again dominated headlines during May, with fresh record highs achieved during the month, but volatility was again evident. Chinese stocks suffered some sharp concentrated declines in May due to concerns about overvaluation and also following fresh government measures to slow the pace of economic and equity market growth, including the rate of stamp duty on share prices rising threefold. Interest rates and bank reserve requirements were both increased and the People’s Bank of China also announced a widening of the trading band for the Renminbi. In other markets, stocks in Singapore, Australia, Malaysia and South Korea were among those to also record new historical highs. Over the month, the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index was 6.8% higher.

5月，中国股市仍是焦点,当月不断创出新高, 但震荡也在加大。中国股市也经历了几次集中的下跌，主要是因为市场担心估过高并且政府采取了放缓经济和股市增长的措施，包括股票交易印花税提高到原来的三倍。中国人民银行还提高了息率和存款准备金率，同时又公布放宽人民币汇率的波动区间。在其他股市，新加坡、澳大利亚、马来西亚和韩国都创出新高。在5月，摩根士丹利资本国际远东（日本除外）指数增长了6.8%。

展望

The region’s markets continue to be supported by a strong cyclical and structural growth story. Corporate balance sheets remain healthy, and we continue to expect solid economic growth across the region. The good macro data is likely to create potential for positive earnings revisions. The scope for upgrades is especially significant because analysts did leave their numbers basically unchanged for the first four months of the year. The continued appreciation in Asian currencies, the easing of interest rates across the region, continued strength in the Chinese economy, and strong earnings growth amongst Asian companies, are all factors that contribute to the positive market outlook in 2007. Valuations are becoming more demanding, but are not in any way extreme, especially if one factors in the region’s long-term potential.

亚洲市场仍然受到强劲的周期性和结构性增长的推动。企业财务状况仍然健康，而我们继续预计亚洲地区将保持稳健的经济增长。良好的经济数据可能会促使盈利预测被提高。因为分析员在过去四个月都没有改变预测数据，所以这次调整会有比较大的空间。亚洲货币持续升值，利率趋于宽松，中国经济保持强劲和亚洲企业盈利快速增长都构成2007年股市的良好前景。估值越来越高，但当考虑到亚洲区的长远增长潜力，这个水平还远没有达到极限。

中国

回顾

China shares rose in May with H share and MSCI China indices up 7.0% and 6.7% respectively. The market was boosted by the announcement that 50% of the QDII investment quota granted last year may be invested in overseas equities. Previously, the QDII quota was designated for overseas fixed income investments only. Against the backdrop of rising property price nationwide, property stocks continued to perform well in May. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a series of policy measures targeted at absorbing excess liquidity in the market. These included hikes in the lending rates and banks reserve requirement ratio. In addition, the Renminbi daily trading limit against the USD was also widened. As a direct measure to cool down the domestic A share market, the Ministry of Finance raised the stamp duty on stock trading from 0.1% to 0.3% which triggered a sharp correction on the domestic China share markets.

受到QDII额度中的50%可以用来投资海外股票的消息刺激，H股和摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数5月份分别上升了7.0%和6.7%。以往QDII额度只可用来投资海外固定收益产品。5月全国楼市都在涨价，地产股在此背景下继续表现出色。中国人民银行为了吸收市场上的多余流动性采取了一系列措施。这些措施包括提高贷款利率和存款准备金率。另外，人民币兑美元的日波动区间被放宽了。为了直接给本地A股降温，财政部把印花税率从0.1%，增加到0.3%，引发了一次剧烈的市场修正。

展望

The Chinese government have intensified its effort to cool down the A share market by expanding the QDII scheme for overseas equity investments, interest rate hikes and increase in stamp duty for domestic stock trading. The policy direction seems to encourage more fund outflow to ease pressure on RMB appreciation and to deflate the A share market. We believe the China shares listed in Hong Kong would benefit from this trend as they are trading at an average discount of over 40% to the A share market. China’s macroeconomic picture remains healthy. We believe Renminbi appreciation, further expansion of QDII scheme, corporate M & A and implementation of management incentive plans will continue to be positive factors that would lead the market higher over the longer term.

中国政府已经尽力采取措施使A股市场降温，包括扩大QDII的海外投资范围，加息和提高印花税。这些措施似乎在鼓励资金流出从而减轻人民币升值的压力，并给A股降温。我们相信在香港上市的中国股票会受益于这一趋势，这是因为平均来说，H股对A股的折价率高达40%或更多。中国宏观经济状况仍然健康。我们相信，人民币继续升值、QDII体系扩张、并购消息和管理层激励计划都会给市场带来长期的增长动力。

中国香港

回顾

The HK market continues to trade sideways and within a tight range. Although the Hang Seng Index managed to register an all-time high in mid-May, profit taking and concerns over further austerity measures in China quickly took the shine off the market. The index ended the month up 1.5% month-on-month and 3.3% year to date. The Commercial/Industrial sector was the best performing sector followed by the Property sector while the utilities lagged.

香港股市继续窄幅上落。虽然恒生指数在五月中旬达到历史新高，但是受到获利回吐的影响，以及对中国未来紧缩措施的担忧很快令市场走低。5月恒生指数上升了1.5%而今年以来上升了3.3%。商业和工业股表现最好，地产股亦表现良好，但公用事业股落后。

展望

The valuation of the HK market remains reasonable, with the current year P/E trading at 14.8x, which is in line with its 34-year average and significantly below the 20-25x previous bull market peaks, while the dividend yield is at an attractive 3.1%. Consensus earnings forecasts are being upgraded. The Hang Seng Index earnings are now showing a solid 13% growth for 2007, up from a low single digit forecast earlier this year.

香港市场的估值仍然合理，当前市盈率在14.8x，仍在34年的平均水平之内，而比之前牛市顶峰时期20-25x的水平仍然有一大段距离。同时，股息率是3.1%，是一个很吸引的水平。整体的盈利预测都被提高了。恒生指数成份股的2007年盈利增长率预计是13%，比年初的单位数增长率预期要高。

债券和货币

债券

回顾

US Treasuries were weaker during May as investor expectations for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve waned. Economic data released during the month saw housing market performance improve and industrial output numbers were better than forecasts. In Japan, the price of the benchmark ten-year government bond fell below par, sending the yield up to 1.76%.

由于对美联储减息的预期减弱，美国国债5月份表现疲弱。这个月公布的经济数据显示楼市状况有改善而工业产出数据比预期好。在日本，基准10年期国债跌破面值，收益率上升到1.76%。

展望

The market’s more bearish outlook on rate cuts by the Fed is a positive development for the asset class as it creates scope for positive surprises if inflation starts falling faster than in recent months. Weakness in the housing market may be the trigger for positive inflation surprises as the high stock of unsold homes may push down rental prices. The pick up in yields helps improve relative valuations that favor US Treasuries marginally over Euro-zone Government debt. Relative valuations increasingly favor Treasuries over high yield debt.

市场看淡美联储减息机会对债券资产来说是有利的，因为如果通胀率开始加速下降，就有可能带来意外的惊喜。疲弱的楼市可能会导致通胀出现意外下降，这是因为市场上还囤积着大量未出售的房产，从而推低房租价格。收益率的提升使得美国国债的估值相对于欧元区政府债券更有吸引力。相对估值提升也使美国债券比高收益率债券更吸引。

货币

回顾

The US dollar was supported during the month by a stronger overall tone to economic data. With interest rate forecasts moving away from a cut, the US currency was able to recover some ground against its major peers. The dollar was higher against the Euro, sterling and the yen during the month. With interest rates in both the UK and the Eurozone expected to rise further, sterling was little changed against the Euro.

美元受到整体经济数据造好的支持在5月走强。减息机会越来越小，有效帮助美元收复部分失地。美元对欧元，英镑和日元走强。因为英国和欧元区都预计加息，英镑对欧元汇率变化不大。

展望

The US dollar is relatively cheap against European currencies and also against most of its major Latin American trading partners and with the downturn in the US well discounted by investors we do not expect that the dollar will suffer major further weakness in the near term. The clear opportunity in FX in our view, remains in Asia where Asian currencies are cheap, the economies are doing well with huge positive current account balances and FX reserve accumulations. These currencies are expected to appreciate gradually over the medium term.

美元相对欧元显得便宜，对其拉丁美洲的主要贸易伙伴货币来说也是如此。美国经济放缓已经被投资者充分兑现，因此我们并不认为近期美元还会遭受严重的贬值。在我们看来，外汇市场最为明显的投资机会在亚洲，亚洲货币仍显得便宜。这些国家经济表现良好，经常项目余额和外汇储备都有巨额的积累。我们预计中期内亚洲货币将保持逐渐升值的步伐。

所有回报都以当地货币计算

本文观点引自汇丰投资管理（香港）

新闻来源：汇丰晋信
发布时间：2007-06-21

 he told me he loved that girl.what should i do now? quit? i really dont wanna to do so.wait and still love him?i dont wanna either. its the most tuff question to me now, and i even cant burry myself in the study~

when he left, i began to think about myself and i did find a number of mistakes i made when i was with him. spoiled girl maybe i am~~~~

cried and helpless.